The Evolution of Search and Social: Marketing Predictions for 2025 (Part 2 of 3)
Local Memo: Google Ruled a Monopoly in DOJ Case
In this week’s update, learn about the antitrust ruling against Google; Google’s continued dominance in search; and the appearance of competitors in local profiles.
Google Ruled a Monopoly in DOJ Case
The News
A lawsuit filed against Google in 2020 by the Department of Justice and several state attorney generals has resulted in a decision from federal judge Amit Mehta that Google is a monopoly. In Mehta’s words: “Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly.”
The lawsuit targets Google’s position as the default search engine on multiple platforms, including Apple, Samsung, and Mozilla, for which privilege Google pays its partners a combined total of $26 billion per year. Though no penalties have yet been issued, it’s possible that these exclusive search partnerships will be disallowed in order to encourage competition. Also on the table is the possible divestiture of Google’s ad business.
Google has argued that its dominance in search is due to its offering a superior product, a notion that was underlined in details from the lawsuit such as testimony from Apple’s Eddy Cue that no amount of money would make Apple replace Google with Bing. Google will fight the decision on appeal, and a separate trial will be required in order to determine what penalties the company may face.
Why This Matters
It remains to be seen what actual impact the decision may have, but it’s being covered in the press as a historic step, and indeed not since Microsoft was declared a monopoly in 2000 has a big tech firm faced an antitrust action at this level.
The most likely potential outcome is that platforms like Apple will be forced to offer other search engines to users as alternatives, rather than baking in Google by default. Users, of course, may continue to opt for Google regardless.
It’s worth noting, however, that the decision against Google comes at a time when users are questioning the platform’s quality and its tendency toward self-preferencing, and when upstarts like Perplexity and OpenAI are presenting challenges on the innovation front. These moves as much as that of the government may serve to open the search marketplace to increased competition.
Google’s Search Dominance Not Yet Impacted by AI Competitors
The News
Clickstream data from Datos, analyzed both by Sonata and by Rand Fishkin, shows that in the most recent 12-month period, May 2023 to May 2024, Google’s search traffic grew by about 1.4%, despite competition from multiple AI-powered platforms from Bing to ChatGPT. Though some upstart platforms had impressive growth in the same period, such as Perplexity which grew by 42%, Google still represented about 290 times the traffic of Perplexity, and Google’s users were far more active than Perplexity’s searchers as well, with the latter only seeing 7.5% the activity of the former.
Fishkin points out that AI platforms are growing, but do not yet represent a significant threat to Google, whereas slightly older competitors like DuckDuckGo are showing stronger traffic results and are perhaps under-hyped due to the attention paid to AI recently.
Why This Matters
The study was published a few days before the antitrust ruling referenced above, and tends to reinforce the perception that Google is still the king of search — which, of course, we already knew. More interesting perhaps is the fact that Bing is no longer Google’s only viable competitor, with DuckDuckGo, Perplexity, and perhaps others poised to win increasing shares of consumer attention in the future.
Google Shows Competitors with “See Also” Carousel
The News
Users are spotting a “See also” carousel in Google local results that points to competitors, as shared in X by Gagan Ghotra and on Search Engine Roundtable by Barry Schwartz. The carousel, which contains photos and links to multiple other businesses, appears toward the end of the business profile in mobile search results.
Courtesy Gagan Ghotra
Why This Matters
Google has shown competitor listings within business profiles in the past, and unfortunately it’s something the business cannot control in any way. But it’s good to be aware that in some cases, as with this restaurant example, users who search for your business, even by name, may be exposed to listings for similar businesses nearby.